According to CNBC Pro analysis, global stock markets rose more than 12% in the first half of this year, outperforming historical averages. The MSCI World Index, which includes more than 1,500 stocks in 23 developed countries, had a stellar first half of the year, beating the 3.89% average gain since 1970. Double-digit returns in the first half also beat the 2017 average return of 9.64%. Over the past 53 years, only periods of positive stock market performance are considered. It is important to note that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. However, this year’s strong rally begins with a bear market in 2022. Since 1970, the index has risen 75% in negative years, for an average return of 18.4%, according to CNBC Pro analysis. With the market already up 12%, some investors question whether there is enough room for growth in the second half of the year. URTH 1Y Hill Historically, the second half of the year has underperformed the first half, according to FactSet data analysis. When stocks rallied in the second half of the year, the average gain over the past half century was 8.8%, almost a percentage point below the average return in the first half of the year. In addition, the MSCI World Index rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year, only the same period in 12 years. However, investors may take comfort in knowing that the second half of the year has failed to rise further in only two of those 12 years. The second-half performance of the remaining decade resulted in an average gain of 6.6% over the same period. But how often does the stock market go up? The MSCI World Index gained slightly more in the second half than in the first half. It has also risen more than twice as often as it has fallen. This global diversified index is available through ETFs offered by iShares, Xtrackers and Lyxor, among others.
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