Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives in Madrid, Spain for the NATO summit on June 29, 2022.
Sweet Nacho | Reuters
NATO will hold a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11 to approve the new defense plan and – NATO leaders hope – announce full approval of Sweden, the new alliance member.
But more than a year after the Nordic country applied to join the defense group, Turkey, which has been a member of the defense group since 1952 and has NATO’s second-largest military, has hit a snag.
Hungary, a member of the European Union and NATO, is the only country to stand its ground, but is expected to follow Turkey’s position on the issue. Countries need the unanimous approval of NATO’s 31 current members to join.
Turkey is using its strength as a member of the coalition to extract concessions from other countries. The gamble could pay off handsomely for Ankara, but it could also backfire by further straining ties with the West, hurting the country’s already fragile economy.
U.S. President Joe Biden has told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is pushing the government to sell F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish military, that Washington wants to drop its opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership.The jets could be Türkiye’s quid pro quo for potential approval from Sweden, though Biden officials said the two requests were “completely unrelated.”
As Turkey, Sweden, and the NATO alliance face significant risks, whichever direction Turkey goes will have major implications for them.
with swedish beef
Some observers say Turkey’s position is also inherently flexible, using its role in NATO to win concessions and remind the West that it is a partner that must take its demands seriously.
“It’s still possible that Turkey will allow Sweden to join NATO in time for the July summit,” Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane, told CNBC. “But it’s clear that there’s a good chance that Erdogan will continue to work on this beyond the deadline.”
Finland and Sweden announced their intention to apply to join NATO in May 2022, reversing the historic non-alignment policy imposed after Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine in February of that year.
Although the Nordic countries have been official partners in the alliance since the 1990s, the idea that the Nordic countries might actually join has angered Moscow — which has previously cited NATO expansion to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
The move is part of a wider dance Ankara is performing between Russia and NATO, using its unique position to its advantage.
southern star
Researcher on Türkiye and Syria
Erdogan, meanwhile, has a friendly relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, acts as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev, and rejects Western sanctions on Russia.
Erdogan finally approved Finland’s NATO membership in March, adding 830 miles to NATO territory along Russia’s western land border.But he said Sweden has not yet achieve the progress Ankara is seeking, It has been accused of allowing Kurds to hold protests in Stockholm in support of the PKK, which both countries designate as a terrorist organization.
Many Kurdish activists living in Sweden say they do not support terrorism but oppose Erdogan and his policies, and Now fears Stockholm may sell them out for NATO membership.Turkish Stockholm’s request The controversial ones include the extradition to Turkey of certain Kurdish activists, some of whom are Swedish citizens and protected from extradition under Swedish law.
The Turkish Presidency issued a statement on July 5 saying, “President Erdogan stated that Sweden has taken a step in the right direction by amending its anti-terrorism legislation.” “But supporters of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)… Organizations continue to freely organize demonstrations praising terrorism, which invalidates the steps taken,” it added.
Kamal Alam, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, explained that Turkey was using the opportunity to send an important message about its national security interests.
A participant jumps on a banner showing a portrait of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a demonstration organized by the Center for a Kurdish Democratic Society against the Turkish president and Sweden’s NATO bid, January 21, 2023 .
Kristen Olsen | AFP | Getty Images
“A lot of Turkey’s position is a direct message to Europe, and while it might look like posturing, Ankara has yet to shake off EU support for the YPG/DYP in northeast Syria, which also translates into for indirect support for the PKK,” referring to Kurdish armed and political groups in Syria that have ties to the PKK but have played a vital role in the local fight against ISIS.
“This stance is a direct result of the aftermath of the war in Syria, when Turkey in many ways drifted away from the EU,” Alam said. “While the headlines may be tactical blocking NATO membership, the overall strategic message is not to upset Turkey National Security.”
“Come in or go out.”
‘playing with fire’
While the gamble could pay off for Turkey, it also risks undermining already strained relations with Western allies and even backfiring economically.
“Turkey’s blockade of Sweden’s NATO accession process is not of clear economic consequence, but it is playing with fire,” said Guni Yildiz, a researcher who focuses on Turkey and Syria.
“The move is part of a wider dance Ankara is performing between Russia and NATO, using its unique position to its advantage,” he told CNBC.
“Turkey, which is delicately aligned with the West on other fronts such as Russian sanctions, believes it can withstand pressure from Sweden for a while. But time is ticking,” Yildiz warned. “The window to exploit Sweden’s membership to benefit is closing. Shut down. When that happens, Turkey will pay the price, especially with the rising costs of managing relations with Russia, inevitably leading to more compromises and fewer gains.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Turkey’s economy has been on a rollercoaster ride for the past few years, with inflation fluctuating between 40% and 80% last year, and currency It lost about 80% of its value Dollar in the past five years.
Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said Turkey could not take more risk in such an unstable environment.
Ash wrote in an email: “Turkey either approves Sweden’s NATO membership in Vilnius or risks a major rupture with the West, at a time when Turkey’s macro economy is on the brink. Now is the time to make a decision It’s time.”
“This will continue until the last moment, the 11.5th hour,” he said. “But if that doesn’t happen, there will be a major crisis in Turkey’s relationship with NATO – at a time when Turkey’s macroeconomics look particularly vulnerable.”
