Rwanda bill – live: Sunak’s immigration agenda to face Tory rebels in key vote

Rishi Sunak’s allies believe the Covid inquiry has already decided his Eat Out to Help Out scheme was harmful, it is claimed.

The prime minister, who was chancellor during the pandemic, will be grilled over the hospitality scheme from 10.30am by the probe’s lead counsel Hugo Keith KC.

Mr Sunak will also face questions over whether he opposed measures to contain the virus and his failure to hand over WhatsApp messages from his time as chancellor to the inquiry.

Archie Mitchell reports on the prime minister’s imminent appearance at the Covid inquiry:

Grant Shapps has rejected the suggestion Rishi Sunak’s leadership was in chaos, insisting the Prime Minister was succeeding in cutting small boat crossings and meeting key economic pledges, and dismissing rows over Rwanda as part of normal parliamentary politics.

Asked if Mr Sunak’s leadership was being questioned, the Defence Secretary told BBC Breakfast: “I just don’t agree with you … a third down, in terms of crossings, slashed by a third. Inflation halved, the economy growing when every commentator and body was saying that it would shrink this year.

“We are having success in these areas. Because, yes, sometimes you have to fight these things through, yes, you will have arguments about them – that’s the whole point of parliamentarians, if you don’t mind me saying, rather than some sort of spectacular goings-on.

“But, actually, the facts are we’re having success with it.”

Conservative MPs have been warned not to use the deepening crisis over the Rwanda Bill to launch a “mad and malicious” attempt to replace Rishi Sunak as leader.

Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs are said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the Tory leader this month over the deportation issue.

Mr Sunak’s authority was dealt a fresh blow as a group of right-wing Tories concluded that the bill is not fit for purpose – with those in revolt telling The Independent they are prepared to vote against the prime minister in January.

The prime minister’s allies said it would be “bonkers” for MPs to vote against the bill on Tuesday, and dismissed the idea of trying to force a new leadership contest as “silly” and self-defeating.

Rishi Sunak has introduced legislation and staged an emergency press conference in a bid to salvage his Government’s Rwanda policy and reassert his authority over a fractious Conservative Party.

Last month, the Supreme Court ruled the policy was unlawful and could not go ahead as it was, concluding there was a real risk that genuine refugees sent to Rwanda could be returned to their home country, where they would face “ill-treatment”.

In an effort to address the court’s concerns, Home Secretary James Cleverly travelled to the country’s capital Kigali on Tuesday to sign a fresh treaty before setting out details of the accompanying Bill in the Commons on Wednesday.

Cabinet minister Grant Shapps has said Gary Lineker should stick to TV and questioned whether the Match of the Day host should continue expressing political views.

Former England footballer Lineker was among a group of celebrities calling for the Government to scrap its Rwanda scheme.

Asked if Lineker should express those views while working for the BBC, Defence Secretary Mr Shapps told Times Radio: “No. And he’s been through all of this before. The BBC have told him he shouldn’t do this type of thing but still it continues.

“The point I would make to Mr Lineker is: what is right or moral about having people trafficked dangerously across the English Channel, losing their lives at sea, illegally entering the country? That is not a civilised, morally correct thing to do.”

He added: “I just fundamentally disagree with him. What happens to him next is up to the BBC.

“As far as I see it, they have issued previous warnings to him, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do and say at this point.

“I know millions of people watch him for his football commentary and TV presenting, I would have thought it’s better to stick with that.”

Cabinet minister Grant Shapps has insisted the Rwanda scheme would prevent the vast majority of attempts to use the courts to avoid being sent to the African nation.

He rejected calls from the Tory right to ignore international law and insisted asylum seekers earmarked for flights to Rwanda would only have a “very narrow” legal path to avoid being put on a plane.

He told Times Radio: “The modelling shows … that only one out of 200 cases would now pass through, once this legislation – in the form proposed – has gone through and become law.

“I think it’s the case that once you break the model, that people will stop trying, or the people traffickers will stop trying to send people because it will be fundamentally unsuccessful.

“Now, you can always have an argument should you just break international law, or ignore the whole thing, or what have you.

“We think, on balance, the United Kingdom is a country which respects international law.”

Tory MPs from both wings of the bitterly divided party will convene to discuss their verdicts on Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation in a major test for his leadership today.

The European Research Group of hardline Brexiteers will hold a summit to discuss the policy with other factions on the Conservative right on Monday.

Veteran MP Sir Bill Cash will present the findings of his so-called “star chamber” of lawyers, before they discuss how to vote on the Prime Minister’s Bill on Tuesday.

The more moderate wing of One Nation Conservatives are then set to hold a separate evening meeting in Parliament before releasing a statement on their judgment.

Sir Bill has already signalled that they do not believe the proposed law is fit for purpose to get the grounded £290 million scheme up and running, as it stands.

Tuesday is the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation, in what is called a second reading. A government Bill has not been defeated at this stage since 1986.

Far more common are defeats and amendments at later stages, but Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Tories to see his majority destroyed as Labour will vote against it.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak faces the most perilous week of his leadership as factions in his bitterly divided Conservative party weigh up whether to derail his Rwanda legislation and his authority with it.

He faces a threat from both the right and left as the tribes hold separate meetings today to consider if they will back the flagship bill in a crunch vote on Tuesday.

Mr Sunak and top ministers including foreign secretary Lord Cameron have been engaging with MPs over the weekend in order to quell any rebellion.

Mr Sunak has told MPs the Conservatives must “unite or die”, but it is unclear whether they will heed his warnings, as some of his possible successors court limelight.

Robert Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister over the legislation, told the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak bill that will not work”.

But he said “we can fix this”, raising the possibility he could abstain along with other opponents before trying to amend the legislation at a later stage.

Veteran MP Sir Bill Cash wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that the bill is not “sufficiently watertight to meet the Government’s policy objectives”, but suggested it could be amended and fixed.

Tuesday is the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation, in what is called a second reading. A government bill has not been defeated at this stage since 1986.

The Home Office believes that Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda policy will stop 99.5% of migrant claims from being successful in blocking their deportation to Rwanda, according to reports.

Leaked documents seen by The Times reportedly show modelling predicting that nine in ten of individual legal challenges would be rejected with no right of appeal within 10 days of their arrival in the UK.

Officials believe that of the ten percent granted a hearing, 90 per cent of these would fail at a second legal stage. Modelling then reportedly estimates that just half of the cases making it to a tribunal stage would succeed, the newspaper says.

To be successful under the prime minister’s flagship policy, migrants would have to provide evidence that they faced “serious and irreversible harm” if removed to Rwanda.

If modelling proves to be correct, just five out of every 1,000 migrant claims would prove successful.